The AfD won a historic victory in Germany's Saxony-Anhalt state election, more than doubling its support and delivering a crushing rebuke to Chancellor Merz's CDU as the populist right closes in on its first state government since World War II.
Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD) has won a historic victory in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, with exit polls showing the anti-immigration party more than doubling its support in a stinging rebuke of Chancellor Friedrich Merz's establishment coalition. Projections from public broadcasters ARD and ZDF put the AfD at roughly 44 percent of the vote, a record result that could put the populist right on the brink of leading a German state government for the first time since World War II.
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) trailed far behind at about 18.5 percent, its worst showing in the state it has governed since 2002. Turnout hit a record 76.5 percent, underscoring the intensity of a race that was watched across Europe as a barometer of the continent's populist surge.
AfD supporters erupted in celebration in the state capital, Magdeburg, as the projections landed. Lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund, a 35-year-old former marketing executive, declared: "We have made history in this country."
Federal co-leader Alice Weidel called the result a "clear government mandate" and said the party would talk to all political forces about how to govern. "We are seeing explosive growth here," Weidel said, predicting the momentum would carry across eastern Germany and into federal politics, where the AfD already leads national polls.
Initial projections showed the AfD at 44.1 to 44.5 percent, roughly double its 2021 result. Die Linke finished third with about 9.3 percent, followed by the Greens and Social Democrats in the mid-to-high single digits. The upstart BSW cleared the 5 percent threshold needed to re-enter the state parliament.
The defining question now is whether the AfD can actually govern. Every mainstream party has ruled out cooperating with it, maintaining what Germans call the Brandmauer, or firewall, and the AfD has said it will not enter coalitions with parties that refuse to work with it. That leaves an outright majority as the only realistic path to power -- and early counts suggested the party may fall just short.
Siegmund signaled readiness to build bridges, saying the AfD extends "a hand to all democratic forces that wish to pursue better policies." He has campaigned on hard-line positions: mass deportations of migrants, an end to new wind farm construction, bans on rainbow flags in schools, and a return of national anthem singing in classrooms. He also wants to rebrand the state's slogan from "Think Modern" to "Think German."
The state's domestic intelligence agency has classified the AfD branch as right-wing extremist, a designation the party dismisses as politically motivated. Critics warn an AfD-led government could strain ties with Berlin and shift the state's posture toward Russia, given the party's skepticism of Ukraine aid and its openness to warmer relations with Moscow.
The result is a personal humiliation for Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose CDU has governed Saxony-Anhalt for nearly a quarter century. Recent polling found only about 9 percent of state voters were satisfied with Merz's performance, and Siegmund did not hide his delight, calling the chancellor "a very good campaigner for the AfD."
CDU general secretary Franziska Hoppermann acknowledged the scale of the defeat, calling it "bitter" and "a defeat for all those who have borne responsibility in the democracy of Saxony-Anhalt over the past 35 years." She ruled out any cooperation with the AfD, insisting the firewall holds.
The result also reverberates far beyond the state of 2.1 million people. The AfD has been the leading opposition force in the Bundestag since 2017 and now tops national polling, with its eyes on federal elections expected before the early 2030s. Sunday's outcome will intensify pressure on Merz's coalition, which has struggled to revive Germany's stagnant economy while migration and domestic security fears continue to drive voters to the populist right.
Official results and final seat counts are expected in the coming hours, and they will determine whether the AfD secured the outright majority it needs to form a government without coalition partners. Protests against the party have drawn thousands to the streets of Magdeburg, and the political establishment is bracing for what a Siegmund-led administration would mean for Germany's federal balance.
Whatever the final arithmetic, Saxony-Anhalt has delivered the clearest signal yet that Germany's political center is cracking. The populist wave that has reshaped American and European politics now has its strongest foothold yet inside Germany's federal system, and the fallout for Merz's government is only beginning.
The AfD won a historic victory in Germany's Saxony-Anhalt state election, more than doubling its support and delivering a crushing rebuke to Chancellor Merz's CDU as the populist right closes in on its first state government since World War II.
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