Trump's Endorsement Power on the Line in Tuesday's South Carolina, Oklahoma Runoffs

Tuesday's Republican runoff elections in South Carolina and Oklahoma will test the power of President Donald Trump's endorsement after a rough stretch for his preferred candidates this month. Trump campaigned in person for his picks in both states, urging Republican voters to turn out as if he were on the ballot himself. The winners will carry the GOP banner into November in two reliably red states.

Trump Goes All In for Graham in South Carolina

The marquee race is South Carolina's Republican Senate runoff, where appointed Sen. Darline Graham faces conservative Rep. Ralph Norman for the nomination to succeed her late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, who died this summer at age 71. Graham and Norman finished first and second in the Aug. 11 special primary, but neither cleared 50 percent of the vote, forcing Tuesday's runoff.

Trump headlined a Myrtle Beach rally for Graham on Friday, telling supporters to "pretend that I'm on the ballot" and vote. Graham also carries the backing of Gov. Henry McMaster, who appointed her to the seat, along with Sen. Tim Scott and Rep. Russell Fry, a top Trump ally.

Norman, meanwhile, is backed by former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and former Gov. Mark Sanford. He was the only member of the state's congressional delegation to endorse Haley over Trump in the 2024 Republican primaries, a history that has made the race a proxy fight within the party.

Mazzei Looks to Close the Gap in Oklahoma

In Oklahoma, Trump is backing former state budget secretary and former state Sen. Mike Mazzei in the GOP gubernatorial runoff against Attorney General Gentner Drummond. Mazzei finished just behind Drummond in the crowded June primary, sending the nomination fight to a second round.

The winner will be the clear favorite in the November general election in the Republican-dominated state, where Gov. Kevin Stitt is term-limited. Trump's intervention in the race gives him a direct stake in who controls the governor's mansion in a state he won by more than 30 points in 2024.

A Shaky August for the Scorecard

The president's endorsement record has taken hits this cycle, with five of his gubernatorial picks falling short. Beyond South Carolina's Pamela Evette, who lost her runoff to Attorney General Alan Wilson in a landslide, Trump-backed candidates Burt Jones in Georgia, Randy Feenstra in Iowa, Megan Degenfelder in Wyoming, and Mike Lindell in Minnesota all came up short in their primaries.

Trump insisted over the weekend that his endorsements are "stronger than ever," and GOP strategists point out that his backing remains a major asset in primaries even when it does not guarantee victory. One South Carolina-based Republican consultant told Fox News Digital that the Graham race "is becoming a referendum on Trump," noting the president came to the state "to solidify his endorsement because he has to show a win here."

Georgia Special Runoff Adds to Tuesday's Stakes

Tuesday also features a special election runoff in Georgia's 13th Congressional District, where Democrats Everton Blair and Marcye Scott are competing for the seat left vacant by the death of Rep. David Scott in April. The Democratic-on-Democratic runoff means the winner will further trim an already fragile Republican House majority, making the outcome a national bellwether heading into the midterms.

What to Watch Tonight

Polls close Tuesday evening in all three states, with results expected in the South Carolina and Oklahoma runoffs by late night. A comfortable Graham victory would reset the narrative around Trump's endorsement power heading into the final stretch of the midterm cycle, while a Norman upset would hand the president his most damaging loss of the year. In Oklahoma, all eyes will be on whether Mazzei can erase Drummond's June edge and deliver Trump a redemption win in a state where his brand runs deep.