New Hampshire Primaries Set Up High-Stakes Fight for Pivotal House Seat

New Hampshire voters picked their candidates Tuesday in one of the most closely watched House races in the country, and the November matchup is now set. Democrat Stefany Shaheen and Republican Anthony DiLorenzo each won their party's primary in the state's 1st Congressional District, the open seat left behind by Rep. Chris Pappas, who is running for the Senate.

The outcome tees up a general election that could help decide which party controls the House. Democrats have held the southeastern New Hampshire district since 2017, but Republicans view it as one of their best pickup opportunities this year, and both parties poured energy into their primaries.

A Familiar Name Wins the Democratic Nod

Shaheen, the daughter of retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, beat out a crowded Democratic field that included Maura Sullivan, a Marine veteran and former Obama administration official. Unofficial results showed Shaheen narrowly edging Sullivan, with union organizer Carleigh Beriont finishing third.

The primary turned bitter in its final weeks. Shaheen ran an ad accusing Sullivan of being bankrolled by corporate interests and a powerful pro-Israel lobbying group, while Sullivan fired back with an ad calling Shaheen a "fancy last name" and suggesting she felt entitled to support. The friction underscored a broader left-versus-center fight playing out in Democratic primaries across the country this cycle.

Shaheen is a former Portsmouth city councilor and past chair of the city's police commission who co-founded a chronic care management company. She campaigned on Medicare for All, expanded tax breaks for first-time homebuyers, and overhauling ICE. She was backed late in the race by former Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, who once held the seat, and by her mother, who announced last March she would not seek reelection.

Trump-Backed Businessman Wins the GOP Side

On the Republican side, DiLorenzo, an auto executive endorsed by President Donald Trump, topped steel executive Hollie Noveletsky, who was making her second straight run for the nomination. Trump called DiLorenzo a "very successful businessman and entrepreneur" when he issued his endorsement over the summer, and the backing helped consolidate support behind the political newcomer.

DiLorenzo's win gives Republicans a well-funded standard-bearer with strong establishment support in a district the party has not carried in a dozen years. The National Republican Congressional Committee has listed the seat as a top target as Republicans work to defend their razor-thin House majority.

A Seat That Has Swung Before

The 1st District has a history of volatility. It changed hands five times between 2006 and 2016, and while Democrats have held it since 2017, independent analysts still view it as competitive. The Cook Political Report rates it likely Democratic, while the University of Virginia Center for Politics calls it lean Democratic.

The race carries extra weight because of what is happening up the ballot. Pappas, who has represented the district since 2019, is seeking the Senate seat being vacated by Jeanne Shaheen. That leaves the district without an incumbent for the first time in years, giving both parties a rare open-seat opportunity in a swing region.

What to Watch in November

Shaheen and DiLorenzo now face roughly two months of campaigning in a district where turnout and independent voters will likely decide the outcome. Shaheen will try to hold together the coalition that carried Democrats through recent cycles, while DiLorenzo will lean on the Trump coalition and economic messaging to make the case for a flip.

The primary results also carry a warning for Democrats: the party's nominee trailed a rival who outraised her and led in some public polling, and the narrow margin shows the district remains far from safe. With control of the House on the line, both national parties are expected to pour millions into the race between now and Election Day.