Kalshi permanently banned former Rep. George Santos -- its first-ever lifetime ban -- after finding he likely engaged in insider trading on bets over his State of the Union attendance. The platform also hit him with a $71,356 penalty.
Kalshi, one of the largest regulated prediction market platforms in the United States, announced Monday that it has permanently banned former Republican Rep. George Santos after concluding the ex-congressman likely engaged in insider trading on bets tied to his own attendance at President Trump's State of the Union address. The lifetime ban, the first in the company's history, comes with a $71,356 penalty and caps a stunning fall for a man who once seemed headed for a long political career.
Kalshi's compliance department said it found reasonable cause to believe Santos traded on non-public information about whether he would attend the address, pocketing $17,839 in the process. The suspension took effect last Friday and blocks Santos from accessing the platform directly or indirectly, the company said.
The scheme, as laid out by Kalshi and federal regulators, was straightforward. Santos placed a series of large wagers between Feb. 2 and Feb. 25 on whether he would attend the State of the Union, an address that came roughly four months after President Trump granted him clemency in a fraud case. On the eve of the speech, the platform's market had his odds of showing up at close to 75 percent.
Then, minutes into the address, Santos posted on X that he had been waylaid at the airport. Social media users immediately accused him of running yet another scheme, and Kalshi's compliance team launched an investigation into his trading history.
The company said Santos was barred from trading in the market because he was uniquely capable of influencing the outcome. It also noted that his failure to participate in the platform's internal review process factored into the permanent suspension.
Kalshi said the ban is permanent and prevents Santos from using the platform directly or through any intermediary. The company also imposed a $71,356 penalty, according to a filing on its website, and Santos retains the right to appeal the decision to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
A company spokesperson confirmed the move marks the first lifetime ban Kalshi has ever issued. The platform has long positioned itself as a heavily regulated alternative to offshore rivals, and it says it has conducted hundreds of investigations into potentially improper trading activity since launching.
Santos, predictably, did not take the news quietly. Responding on X, he mocked the company: "Hey @Kalshi thanks for the lifetime ban from your gambling platform. Let's see how much longer you guys are around for."
The Kalshi action is the latest twist in one of the most remarkable downfalls in modern congressional history. After winning New York's 3rd Congressional District in 2022, Santos quickly came under scrutiny for fabricated details about his resume, education, and professional background. Federal prosecutors later charged him with wire fraud and aggravated identity theft, and he pleaded guilty in 2024.
The House voted to expel him in December 2023, making Santos only the sixth member in U.S. history to be removed from the chamber. He reported to prison on July 25, 2025, to begin a seven-year, three-month sentence, but President Trump commuted his sentence in October 2025 after he had served less than three months.
Santos settled the separate CFTC case in July, agreeing to pay more than $35,000 and accept a three-year ban from CFTC-regulated prediction markets. His attorney said at the time that the settlement was made to avoid the cost of prolonged litigation and did not constitute an admission of wrongdoing.
The Santos case has become one of the highest-profile insider trading matters to emerge from the fast-growing prediction market industry. Federal regulators have also pursued cases involving government employees accused of using privileged information to profit from political and geopolitical events.
As prediction markets attract millions of dollars in trading volume, the industry faces growing questions about the use of non-public information in event-based trading. Kalshi insists it takes those concerns seriously, and the Santos ban sends a clear signal that the platform intends to police its own marketplace.
An appeal could set up a fresh clash between Santos and the company, and the former congressman shows little sign of backing down. For now, the man who once represented Long Island in Washington is barred from one of the most popular platforms in the prediction market boom -- a fitting footnote to a career defined by one controversy after another.
Kalshi permanently banned former Rep. George Santos -- its first-ever lifetime ban -- after finding he likely engaged in insider trading on bets over his State of the Union attendance. The platform also hit him with a $71,356 penalty.
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